Clinical Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Patients with Post-Sustained Virologic Responses of Chronic Hepatitis C: A Case Control Study

Background/Aims No clinical model exists to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in sustained virologic response-achieving (HCC after SVR) patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods We performed a case-control study using a clinical database to research the risk factors for HCC after SVR. A predictive model based on risk factors was established, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated. Results In the multivariate model, an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin reductions of 1 g/L were associated with 21.7-fold (95% CI, 4.2 to 112.3; p<0.001) and 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.7; p=0.004) increases in the risk of HCC after SVR, respectively. A predictive model based on an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis (yes, +1; no, 0) and post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L (yes, +1; not, 0) predicted the occurrence of HCC after SVR with a cutoff value of >0, an AUC of 0.880, a sensitivity of 0.833, a specificity of 0.896, and a negative predictive value of 0.956. Conclusions An initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis combined with a post-SVR albumin value of ≤36.0 g/L predicts the occurrence of HCC after SVR in patients with CHC.